sciencebriefs
Topic

Probability

Reasoning about what has not happened yet, badly by default.

5
in science
11:20
average
57 min
in total
6
across the network
Probability across the network →
Refine23
Fields
Physics 186Chemistry 58Astronomy & space 81Earth & climate 49Evolution 70Genetics 61Neuroscience 46Medicine 85Ecology 37Computing & AI 47Engineering 60Energy 16Materials 20
Verdict
Worth your time 544Worth it in part 17
Topics
Scientific method 146Physics 139Genetics 71Astronomy 63Medicine 61Evolution 60Chemistry 59Mathematics 59All 121 topics →
All briefs5
10:37

Bayes' theorem

Thomas Bayes · 1763

Bayes's 1763 essay solves a narrow inverse probability problem using conditional probability. It computes limits on a binomial parameter—not a general theory of belief updating. Its power lies in precision, not generality.

13:00

Cognitive bias

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's 1970s experiments found people rate a detailed, statistically impossible scenario as more probable than a plain one — evidence that judgment runs on shortcuts, not pure logic, a claim that reshaped economics and drew its own rationality war.
13:00

Design of experiments

A well-designed experiment and an underpowered one can ask the identical question and still deserve opposite trust. The gap between them is arithmetic, and across whole fields the arithmetic has not been going well.
9:44

Georg Cantor

Cantor didn’t discover infinity — he broke it into pieces you can count, compare, and order.
10:19

Ludwig Boltzmann

Entropy isn’t fate — it’s odds. Boltzmann proved the second law is a bet, not a command.